will be determined by the efficiency of relations between Kyiv and Washington at the newest stage of co-operation.
The picture of geopolitical priorities of Ukrainian citizens reflects the traditional regional specificity. The "watershed" is between the opinions of respondents from the western and central regions of the country, on the one hand, and the eastern and southern, on the other. In the West and Centre, those polled clearly favour co-operation with the EU, whereas in the East and South, preference is given to ties with the Russian Federation. The regional polarisation of foreign policy orientations of the population is a result of the controversial and multi-vector foreign policy of the previous leadership of the country, which was unable to propose a unifying national idea. Moreover, the trend became stronger during the past presidential campaign, when the pro-governmental forces in fact stirred up confrontation between the West and East of the country.
The demographic aspect of foreign policy orientations of Ukrainian citizens is without a doubt important as well. The most socially mobile age groups, i.e. the youth (18-29 years) and people of the middle age (30-39 years), give preference to co-operation with the EU countries. Recently the trend has evidently increased. In the 40-49 years group, sentiments split almost equally between the EU countries and Russia. Meanwhile, in the older age groups (50-59 years; 60 years and above), proponents of co-operation with the Russian Federation dominate. In other words, the young generation of Ukrainians favours co-operation with the EU, while the older generation views ties with Russia as a priority.
2. What factors influence relations between Ukraine and Russia?
The dynamics of evaluating the factors hindering the development of bilateral relations have undergone significant changes. In contrast to the results of the previous years, the present hierarchy of the factors exerting a negative influence is clearly dominated by the "deepening of co-operation of Ukraine with NATO" (52.7%). It is followed by the problems of the Black Sea Fleet and Sevastopol (43%), uncertainty (inconsistency) of Ukraine's foreign policy towards Russia (41.5%), and the proclaimed course of Ukraine's integration into the EU (37.5%). Co-operation with NATO and the EU rose in the list of the negative factors.
In other words, in contrast to the previous years, the public is now more concerned that the course of Euro-Atlantic integration may have a negative impact on the development of relations between Ukraine and Russia. Probably, this is the inertia of certain stereotypes of the past election campaign when the pro-governmental forces played the Russian "card", but in fact, bluffed: either with the West, or with Russia. It is noteworthy that the public does not view the humanitarian agenda (the status of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine) as a "factor of tension" and ranks it next to the last in this list.
And what steers Russia towards Ukraine? According to respondents, in co-operation with Kyiv, Moscow is mainly interested in the Ukrainian markets for Russian goods, transit of Russian energy resources to Europe, and employment of Ukraine's scientific and intellectual potential. Family relations between Ukrainians and Russians and their common historical past contribute the most to rapprochement between the countries. People are aware of the importance of the traditional ties and appreciate them.
The dynamics of responses to the question of who has the greatest positive influence on the development of Ukraine-Russia relations draws attention. One should note a substantial increase (by 12.6%) in the rating of positive influence of the President of Ukraine and an increase in the number of respondents convinced in the positive influence of Ukrainian regional leaders on the development of bilateral co-operation. Besides, Ukrainian citizens still rather sceptically (as in the past) assess the possibility of positive influence of the Cabinet of Ministers, the Verkhovna Rada, and non-governmental organisations on bilateral relations. They also gave a rather low assessment of the positive influence of mass media.
The assessments of individual influence of the Ukrainian state and political figures on the process of co-operation between our countries are of interest. As one may see, President Viktor Yushchenko exerts the greatest positive influence (56.7"%) on the development of bilateral relations. Respondents gave second place to VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn (47.3%). The leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych with 44.7% and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko with 44.6% share third place. With respect to the others, quite a few respondents either abstained from answering or reported that they were unfamiliar with their activity.
3. Prospects of bilateral co-operation
A steady majority of respondents believes that Ukraine should deepen co-operation with the Russian Federation.
This indicator has not changed since November 2002, stalling at 69%. Quantitative changes among the respon-dents who chose other answers are insignificant and do not change the overall picture. Therefore, the need to develop contacts with Russia dominates the public views.
Currently, in the regional dimension, the highest level of those supporting deeper co-operation with Russia is obviously observed in the