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SUMMARY

As one of the most crucial developments in the area of international security, the enlargement and transformation of the North Atlantic Alliance turns around the formation of the new post-bipolar system of international relations. This process, without any exaggeration, determines the destiny of European countries, because it does not only consolidate the outcome of the bi-polar stand-off once and for all, but also outlines the common European basic political values within the borders of the Euro-Atlantic area, the affiliation to which is aspired by many countries in Europe, including Ukraine.

Therefore, the issue of the new role of the Alliance in ensuring security of the Euro-Atlantic area is high on the agenda. Shaping up of the new Euro-Atlantic architecture of security in the future is most likely to be realised through enhancing its basic structures, such as:*

further NATO enlargement to the east;*

deepening of co-operative relations between the NATO and the EU in the area of security;*

involvement of Russia in the process of strengthening stability and peace in Europe;*

the economic and political development of the post-Soviet area. The influence by the USA and western european countries.

Further NATO enlargement to the east is an important component of the new architecture of the Euro-Atlantic security. The second wave of accession to the Alliance has meant the extension of the NATO main zone of responsibility in Europe. The accession of Slovakia and Slovenia meant filling in the «gaps» that existed within the zone. However, the main problems may occur not inside the zone but on its periphery, on the frontline of its enlargement. Under these conditions, Ukraine is becoming a key factor, which will determine the further enlargement of the Alliance. Ukraine has borders with Romania and Slovakia, the two new NATO member-countries. In this connection, the challenges and risks that may pose a certain

threat to all the structures of the Euro-Atlantic security should be taken into account. The possible risks include the following, namely:

1. The EU transformation into an independent geopolitical power in Europe and weakening of the Euro-Atlantic links between the USA and western European countries.

2. Restoration of the authoritarian regime in Russia accompanied by the return to the policy of geopolitical revenge.

Based on the assumption that risks will persist throughout the next decade it is possible to forecast that the most plausible scenario of the situation around Ukraine following the second wave of accession to NATO will be its transformation into a «buffer» zone. This scenario has been partially implemented. Ukraine has been actually squeezed between NATO and Russia-Belarus military union. The second wave of enlargement of the Alliance will only underline the features and contours of this «buffer» zone. Such a scenario could be acceptable for the Alliance from the military point of view since it does not require any additional deployment of forces on the territory of new member-countries and does not envisage high costs for ensuring their defence and security. But it cannot satisfy NATO from a political standpoint. Firstly, it slows down the process of the Alliance's further enlargement; secondly, it encourages the enhancement of authoritarian rule and political instability in Ukraine.

The point is that, as a «buffer» zone, Ukraine can support the Euro-Atlantic security only on condition of being a politically stable country. The buffer role deprives Ukraine of external conditions, which are necessary to ensure such stability. The uncertain situation of being a «buffer zone» could provoke Russia to annex Ukraine back as its former territory. Should Russia establish its military presence in Ukraine, it will inevitably try to establish its total political and economic domination. Should it all materialise, the «buffer