УДК 330.332

Носова О.В., Національний університет внутрішніх справ

Russia's Trade Performance in Transition Period

The paper is examined that the existence of Russia's competitive advantages can generate trade growth in the country. The export oriented sectors development in the economy provides the rise of foreign trade gains, which should cover the budget deficit, the purchases of new kinds of goods, and know-how development. The proposed government policy should be directed to support and stimulate the export- oriented branches development.

У статті розглянуто, що існування порівняльних переваг може забезпечувати зростання торгівлі в країні. Розвиток експортно-орієнтованого сектора економіки забезпечує отримання торгі- вельного прибутку, який повинен покривати дефіцит бюджету, закупівлю нових видів товарів й розвиток НДОКР. Запропонована політика держави, яка націлена на підтримку та стимулювання експортно-орієнтованих галузей.The trade development accelerates the economic growth, provides stimulus to new forms of productivity, enhances specialization, and leads to a more rapid pace of job creation. The expansion of free trade promotes inflow of goods and services, the increase of competition in domestic market, access to a new markets, the dissemination of knowledge and technologies. The share of merchandise trade relative to value added is growing dramatically in the world, and is characterizing the integration of global economy through trade.

The recent global trade deceleration effects in the change of the world trade structure of commodities and services. The recession of the world trade rate affects in slowing down the high technology branches development. The existence of trade impediments, including high tariffs, tariff escalation, tariff rate quotas, and trade practices prevents countries from receiving trade benefits. The share of industrial commodities increases in the whole volume of global trade. The World Bank survey forecasts optimistic future global prospects, the rise of world demand, expansion of trade relations in the world, growth world savings, population, and investment in education.

The Russian integration into the international trade system is based on the reduction of restrictions of export products and services, the expansion country openness, and the improvement of the national production competitiveness. Trade liberalization provides lower restrictive barriers, especially in services markets, the change of legal rules, norms, the improvement trade relations, and the income growth. Countries that fully liberalized trade and investment in finance and telecommunications grow faster in comparison with closed economies. The analysis of the basic trade policy concepts, the determination of the economic prospects of the rise of Russian foreign trade, the geographical patterns and policy conclusions are considered in the paper. The question of future Russia's WTO joining relates to the solution of the problems of the adoption international legal system, the establishment international trade mechanism, combining the country interests and international community ensuring an effective development outcomes, and WTO accession.

1. The basic economic approaches in the modern trade theory

The question of the trade policy's role in the countries economic development is related to the one of the vital scientific problems in Economics. Scientists make attempts to elaborate the optimal trade policy rules and to estimate the future world trade perspectives. International trade has strong effects on the distribution of income within countries, so that it often produces losers as well winners (KRUGMAN P.R., OBESTFIELD M., 2000). Economists argue the following concept, and consider that trade has not differences from many other forms of economic change, which are normally regulated. The similar countries produce with similar factor proportions, and this trade will not involve the income-distribution effects characteristic of more conventional trade. Some scientists explain the increasing the divergence of per capita incomes as a result of international division of labor and long-term specialization of countries in trade.

Other researchers follow the concept considering the state policy role in the trade performance. The welfare effects of trade and industrial policy under oligopoly can be reached in case the government is able to set its policy in advance of firm's production decisions, and if government policy commitments are credible. The assumption that each firm does not take into account the effect of its own actions on the profits of other domestic competitors (EATON J., GROSSMAN G.M., 1986).

It is widely recognized by researches that scale economics play a crucial role in explaining the postwar growth in trade among the industrial countries. Trade depends on the allocation of production resources in the country. The resource-abundant country can lose from international trade under decreasing returns on skills, and can gain from trade under increasing returns on skills. Development paths of the countries converge in the case of decreasing returns but may diverge under increasing returns (TROFIMOV G., 2000). The traditional gains from increased specialization and exchange across countries, trade in intermediate inputs brings efficiency gains that lead to an outward shift in the production frontier for final