goals; he also stated that the US had not supported any candidate during the campaign. According to preliminary data, it appeared that Hamid Karzai had won re-election with 40.6% of the vote, but it will be necessary to wait for the official results [68]. If this is the result, the question remains if Karzai's re-election is good news for the coalition. Many believe that Karzai is a source of much of the corruption in the government.
To realize the new strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan, there will be many threats for the US and coalition forces to overcome. In accordance with COIN doctrine, this fight will involve many different scopes of operations and will therefore be quite challenging. The primary focus will not be on fighting the Taliban and other terror organizations [69], but instead on protecting civilians from violence, reconstructing the infrastructure, and ensuring a stable defence force [70]. Coalition victories will not come from destroying the enemy, but from persuading the population by listening to the Afghans, discussing their problems, responding to local communities, and observing the environment and enemy tactics. In his commander's guidance, Gen. McChrystal reminded all forces that this is a battle of wits. [71] He also emphasized minimizing aviation attack in urban areas, respecting cultural sites, correct procedures for searching homes, and opening fire only in self- defence. This unification of strategy under COIN doctrine will, over time, allow the people to decide the future of their country.
ISAF armies have moved throughout the provinces, providing a presence in the small, mountainous villages where the rebels had previously moved freely. Their mission is to work with the local tribes and support the population in their daily endeavours. Especially important is programme for rebuilding agriculture. This is only one example of how the fight is for the «hearts and minds» of Afghans. Analyzing the US and ISAF activities in March and April 2009, it is clear that these tactics have already begun to produce results. The question remains, however, is how long this will last [72].
Retired Australian Lt. Col. David Kilcullen, author of «The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One», believes that there are only 2 or 3 years left before the patience of the Afghanis runs out. During this time, the Taliban will either be neutralized or ISAF forces will leave and the Taliban will resume power. President Obama will also want to redeploy America forces prior to his next election. Right now, the insufficient number of troops allowed the Taliban to roam freely, terrorize the citizens, collect taxes, and re-establish their power in the areas previously cleared and now greatly improved by the ISAF rebuilding [73].
Both NATO and the US have committed themselves so fully to this conflict they do not dare say the word «defeat». However, claiming victory requires many things: defeating the Taliban, increasing national security, safety of the population, the rebirth of agriculture, trade, and industry, ceasing opium production, and the removal of terrorist influences. The PRT activities have begun to produce results. Through international monetary assistance there are more roads, better irrigation ditches, schools, new crops, wells, dams, and hydroelectric power stations. Many cities and villages have been improved. But there is also a requirement to destroy the terrorist sanctuaries along the Pakistani border.
On the other hand, retired Polish General Stanislaw Koziej believes that NATO should change the status of the operation from a stabilization operation to a declaration of war and require obligatory presence from all members. This would end the current inequality of force commitments [74]. This lack of unity in NATO is a detriment to the alliance. He believes it is scandalous that American, British, Canadian, and Polish soldiers fight and die for the defence of Europe, which other nations avoid fighting by never leaving their bases. The Afghanistan conflict is a bellwether test for NATO and the results will influence the future of the alliance.
It is ultimately NATO's responsibility to determine a new strategy for Afghanistan. The new NATO Secretary General, Anders Rasmussen, appointed a 12 member panel to craft a new strategic concept under the leadership of former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright. Their ideas will become the foundation of the future of NATO as well as ISAF's role in Afghanistan [75].
СПИСОК ВИКОРИСТАНИХ ДЖЕРЕЛ
After the attacks; The President's Message: A Different Battle Awaits. President Bush's radio address to the nation 16.09.2001, «The New York Times» 16-09-2001, http://www.nytimes.com/, 2009-05-04.
Article 5 «The North Atlantic Treaty», Washington 4 April 1949, http://www.nato.int/, 2009-08-29; Razem do spraw bezpieczenstwa. Wprowadzenie do zagadnien NATO, Bruksela, no publication year, pp. 11, 14.
The definition of asymmetric conflict: D. L. Buffaloe, Defining Asymmetric Warfare, The Institute of Land Warfare.
